Canadian International and E.P. Taylor Stakes on for Sunday

Horseracing Betting Lines

10/18/2007 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 70th running of the $2 million Canadian International has attracted a field of 12 turf runners and the $1 million E.P. Taylor Stakes has a field of 10 fillies and mares set to compete on the grass Sunday afternoon at Woodbine.

The 3-1 morning-line favorite for the International is Quijano of Germany. The five-year-old will be ridden by Andrasch Starke from the far outside post. Trained by Peter Schiergen, Quijano has won 12 of 15 lifetime races, including a win in his last start on September 2.

Local runner Sky Conqueror is the 4-1 second choice in the program. Sky Conqueror won the 2006 Sovereign Award as Canada's champion turf horse. Javier Castellano comes north to ride the five-year-old from post four.

Trained by Darwin Banach for owner Bill Sorokolit, Sky Conqueror has earned more than $1.8 million in 19 career starts win seven victories. He is a two- time winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes here and was third in last year's International.

"We might be in a position where he will be overlooked after finishing third in the Nijinsky (Stakes, August 26) and then eighth in the Mile," said Banach. "It's a different role for him to be in. Usually, everyone is thinking about his late kick and when he'll come charging. But he's not the type you want to overlook for a minute."

Ask, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, is the 6-1 third pick in the morning-line and will break from post nine with jockey Ryan Moore. The four-year-old has won both of his starts this year and can give his trainer another win in this event. Stoute won here in 1996 with Singspiel.

Here is the complete field for the 1 1/2 mile race in post position order: Marsh Side, Emma-Jayne Wilson; Oracle West, John Murtagh; Windward Islands, Todd Kabel; Sky Conqueror, Javier Castellano; Stream of Gold, Eddie Castro; Irish Wells, Olivier Peslier; Honolulu, Michael Kinane; Cloudy's Knight, Ramsey Zimmerman; Ask, Ryan Moore; Linda's Lad, John Velazquez; Sunriver, Garrett Gomez and Quijano, Andrasch Starke.

The field for 1 1/4 mile E.P. Taylor Stakes is topped by three-year-old Sealy Hill. The filly swept the Canadian Triple Tiara for three-year-old females.

Sealy Hill is owned by Melnyk Racing and trained by Mark Casse. She won the Woodbine Oaks, Bison City Stakes and the Wonder Where Stakes. Initially she was disqualified to third in the Bison City. An appeal hearing reversed the disqualification to give her the Triple Tiara.

Sealy Hill will start from post three in the ten horse field with Patrick Husbands again in the saddle. In her last start, Sealy hill was second to Essential Edge in the Canadian Stakes at Woodbine.

Essential Edge will break from post eight with Jono Jones riding. Owned by Chiefswood Stable, the four-year-old has earned nearly $500,000.

Here is the complete field for the $1 million Taylor Stakes: Elle Runaway, Eddie Castro; The Niagara Queen, Emma-Jayne Wilson; Sealy Hill, Patrick Husbands; Mrs. Lindsay, John Murtagh; Four Sins, Michael Kinane; Sans Souci Island, Mike Smith; Safari Queen, John Velazquez; Essential Edge, Jono Jones; Hostess, Channing Hill and Barancella, Javier Castellano.

The E.P Taylor Stakes has a scheduled post-time of 2:59 p.m. (et) and the Canadian International is set for 4:05 p.m.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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