Germany should have no problem with Japan

Soccer Betting Lines

09/16/2007 - Hangzhou, China (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Germany received a little dose of reality on Friday when it was held to a 0-0 draw by England after winning the opening game of the tournament 11-0 against Argentina.

The Germans looked unstoppable in pounding the helpless South American team, but they were brought back to Earth by an England side that played them to a very even game.

The draw prevented Germany from booking a spot in the knockout round, but they should have no problem taking care of that on Monday against Japan.

The Japanese have been a very disappointing team so far despite the fact that they have taken four points from two games.

Japan needed two free kick goals from Aya Miyama, including one at the final whistle, to earn a draw with England, and then got a gift goal in the 91st minute against Argentina when the keeper spilled a bad rebound that was tapped home by Yuki Nagasato.

Star midfielder Homare Sawa has had a terrible tournament to this point, but somehow Japan still has a chance to advance to the quarterfinals.

Japan's attack has lacked creativity, which is what Sawa provides in the middle of the field. She has failed to have any impact on either game, but if Japan is to have any chance of a taking a point from Germany, that must change.

The fact that Argentina held the Asian club without a goal for over 90 minutes is a bad sign, and Japan does not figure to have the talent in attack to crack Germany's strong back line.

Outside of Sawa, there is no player who is capable of making an individual play to change the game. The only hope is for Japan to draw a free kick near the box and hope that Miyama can beat German keeper Nadine Angerer, who has looked shaky at times.

Japan has not played poorly defensively to this point, but Birgit Prinz, Sandra Smisek and Kerstin Garefrekes will certainly put them to the test.

Japan allowed England's Kelly Smith to get free for two goals, and Prinz has to be thinking about the next goal that will put her in first place on the all-time goals list in World Cup history.

She will have a good chance to set that record against Japan, which does not have the ability to shut down such a balanced attack.

Japan has been a part of all five World Cups with its appearance this year. However, it has only moved on past the group stage once, and don't expect that to happen this year either.

There is not enough talent or creativity on this Japan side to overcome such a technically strong team, and Germany will advance as expected with a good chance to defend its World Cup title.

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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

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