NCAA Football Preview - Hawaii Warriors

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 2006 SEASON IN REVIEW: Hawaii has been known as a passing team ever since head coach June Jones took over the Warriors almost a decade ago, and yet there were still more surprises in store for Jones and the rest of the Western Athletic Conference when junior quarterback Colt Brennan finally got comfortable in the pocket for the Honolulu-based squad. In front of the largest crowd ever to catch a glimpse of the Warriors, the team came up a little short in their season opener versus Alabama on the road, 25-17, but managed to crush UNLV in the home opener two weeks later, 42-13. The WAC opener versus Boise State also took some wind out of the team's sails as they went down in a 41-34 defeat in Idaho, but from then on it was nearly a perfect season for the program. A school-record nine-game win streak ensued, with the squad almost making it 10 in a row to close out the regular season, were it not for a hard-luck 35-32 setback versus Oregon State at Aloha Stadium on December 2nd. Nevertheless, the Warriors made their way into the postseason and their very own Hawaii Bowl versus Arizona State, the team's fourth shot in the event's five-year history. Brennan blew away the Sun Devils in a 41-24 decision thanks to the record-setting play of wideout Jason Rivers, who tied a school record with 14 receptions and established a new NCAA bowl standard with a ridiculous 308 yards receiving. Not to be overlooked, Brennan saved his best for last as he brought the team back from a 10-3 halftime deficit by passing for a school-record 559 yards and connected on a total of five touchdowns. The TD total was significant because it left the California native with an NCAA single-season record of 58 scoring passes. Records, from the team level and in the conference, along with national marks, fell week after week seemingly with the alarmingly accurate play of Brennan, who was named the 2006 winner of the Sammy Baugh Award and finished sixth in the Heisman Trophy voting for a team that tied a program record with 11 wins overall and placed second in the WAC standings with a 7-1 mark. Brennan, who was named the WAC Offensive Player of the Year, threw for more than 300 yards and five touchdowns in eight different games, yet he was so productive with the nation's best completion percentage (.726) that he sat out the fourth quarter in six of the team's 14 outings.

2007 ANALYSIS:

OFFENSE: Is there any question who the focus of the offense will be this season for the Warriors? Brennan, who became the first Hawaii quarterback to earn All-American status since 1978, led the nation in seven statistical categories as a junior and set a new mark for passing efficiency for a single season at 185.96. Easily within range of any and all quarterback records with the Warriors, Brennan is on the cusp of greatness and will have plenty of weapons at his disposal out on the wings. Returning starters at wideout include juniors Davone Bess and Ryan Grice-Mullen and senior Jason Rivers. An honorable mention All-American selection, Bess was a first-team All-WAC choice for the second straight campaign as he led the squad with 96 grabs for 1,220 yards. While any team would be happy to have even one receiver with double- digit touchdowns, Bess was one of four receivers to register at least 10 TD catches, leading the unit with 15. With his huge postseason effort, Rivers finished with 72 catches for 10 TDs and an average of more than 16 yards per reception. In the two years that he's played for the Warriors, Grice- Mullen already has 23 touchdowns and close to 2,000 receiving yards. With Brennan getting the green light to throw down the field whenever he sees fit, Bess, Rivers and Grice-Mullen might just become the first set of teammates to all record over 1,000 yards receiving in a single season. The front line for Hawaii returns two starters in senior Hercules Satele and sophomore John Estes, which leaves Aaron Kia to come in at center, Keith Ah-soon the right tackle and Keoni Steinhoff at left tackle. In past years the running back position was nothing more than a blocking back for the Hawaii quarterbacks to buy some additional time in the pocket, but after Nate Ilaoa nearly gained 1,000 yards in 2006 the position might be redefined, which means junior David Farmer and freshman Kealoha Pilares will become even more important as they try to fill the void.

DEFENSE: As was the case with the so-called rushing attack in recent years for the Warriors, the defense did little more than buy time for the offense to rest up for another exciting burst down the field. However, the unit turned the corner last year as it ranked third in the conference in run defense, giving up just 136.1 ypg after placing 98th in the nation in that department a year earlier. The pass defense was a bit looser, allowing 241.7 ypg, but much of that had to do with the fact that almost every opponent was fighting an uphill battle both against the Warriors and the clock as they tried to catch up. Whatever the reason, junior linebacker Adam Leonard is not going to go away easily this season, especially after placing first on the unit with 114 stops a year ago, earning him All-WAC Second Team honors. In addition, Leonard also recorded team highs with nine pass breakups and four recovered fumbles. Joining Leonard in the middle of the field are Solomon Elimimian, Micah Lau and Tyson Kafentzis, the latter being one of the best athletes coach Jones has ever been around. Elimimian finished second on the unit with 89 stops which again was a result of so many teams having to pass the ball just to stay competitive. The front line has lost some considerable talent, leaving only senior Michael Lafaele as the only returning starter, which means juniors David Veikune and Keala Watson, along with senior Karl Noa will have to pick up the pace and gel as quickly as possible. The secondary remains almost intact with the inclusions of Gerard Lewis, Myron Newberry and Jacob Patek, which leaves the only remaining position at free safety falling to Desmond Thomas in all likelihood.

SPECIAL TEAMS: As one would expect with such a wildly successful offense, the Warriors had little need for a punter last season, leaving Kurt Milne with a mere 17 attempts, compared to 60 for the opposition. With Milne now gone, that means that either placekicker Dan Kelly or perhaps Briton Forester might fall into that spot. As far as making returns is concerned, any number of players could be in for kickoffs after as many as eight players were credited with such returns a season ago. Malcolm Lane might get the bulk of those attempts, while Newberry expects to again handle punts after handling a team-high 22 of them in 2006.

OUTLOOK: Hawaii, which enters the season ranked 23rd in the nation according to the AP, has seen more than its share of productive quarterbacks over the years. However, in the case of Brennan, he's learned how to make the tough throws without having to suffer the negative consequences. In 559 pass attempts a season ago, the signal-caller was picked off a mere 12 times, just 25 total after two seasons with more than 1,000 pass attempts. Considering the competition in the first four games this season (Northern Colorado, Louisiana Tech, UNLV and Charleston Southern), the Warriors might not get a lot of credit for senseless blowouts. However, the momentum, combined with meetings against Idaho and Utah State right afterwards should create a well-oiled offensive machine that few defenses will have an answer for.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.