NCAA Football Preview - Penn State Nittany Lions

NCAA Football Betting Lines

08/24/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - 2006 SEASON IN REVIEW: Expectations were mixed when it came to the 2006 Penn State Nittany Lions, as too many questions on offense kept even the staunchest supporters from giving Joe Paterno's club an unabashed endorsement. The season began well enough as PSU rolled visiting Akron in a 34-16 final. Next came a highly-anticipated trip to Notre Dame and while the game was tight initially, the Fighting Irish took advantage of several Nittany Lion mistakes and ran away with a 41-17 victory. A 37-3 shellacking of I-AA foe Youngstown State followed, setting up a Big Ten showdown with top-ranked Ohio State. In that contest, Paterno's club was simply outclassed in a 28-6 decision, but at 2-2 the team refused to fold the tent as it went on to win its next two games over Northwestern and Minnesota. A narrow loss to Michigan tempered any enthusiasm, but victories in four of their final five regular season bouts had the Lions at 8-4 and in line for a January bowl game. Penn State was rewarded with an Outback Bowl berth against SEC member Tennessee. Paterno's crew had it all over the Volunteers on that day, claiming a 20-10 win to run their all-time bowl record to an impressive 25-12-2.

2007 ANALYSIS:

OFFENSE: The PSU offense will live and die on the arm of senior QB Anthony Morelli. A 53.9 percent passer in '06 who threw for more than 2,400 yards and 11 TDs, Morelli hasn't lived up to the huge expectations he came to Happy Valley with, but he will have arguably the school's best receiving corps on which to lean. The talented trio of juniors Derrick Williams, Deon Butler and Jordan Norwood combined for 133 receptions, 1,549 yards and five scores last season, and finding the end zone more often will be crucial to the team's success this fall. That's because the second-leading rusher in the program's storied history, Tony Hunt, is now playing his football on Sundays. It's now time for seniors Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw to carry the mantle, and whether they succeed or not will hinge on the play of an offensive line that must find a replacement for NFL first-rounder Levi Brown. In all, three starters are back so continuity shouldn't be too much of a problem. The play of Morelli and Scott, who redshirted last season, will be the two biggest determining factors in how far up the Big Ten ladder the Lions will climb.

DEFENSE: The Nittany Lions stuffed the run last season, yielding just 87.5 ypg to rank seventh in the nation. As a result, foes put up a mere 14.4 ppg (ninth- lowest nationally), and while Paterno always seems to have an aggressive defense, there are some questions surrounding this year's bunch. Specifically, the defensive line where only one starter returns in junior DE Josh Gaines. With former Butkus Award winner Paul Posluszny out of the picture, this is Dan Connor's time to shine. The 6-3 senior LB is one of the finest to ever play the position at what has affectionately been dubbed "Linebacker U.", but he has lived in Posluszny's shadow the last few years despite making 113 stops in '06. Connor is joined by junior Sean Lee to form one of the better linebacking duos in the conference. Meanwhile, the Penn State secondary boasts some pretty good players of its own in juniors Anthony Scirrotto, Tony Davis and Justin King. Scirrotto led the Big Ten in INTs last year with six, while Davis recorded a club-best 13 PBUs.

SPECIAL TEAMS: Junior Kevin Kelly missed 12 field goals last season, but to be fair he attempted 34 of them. He will need to be more consistent for the Lions to gain a special teams advantage, although with several talented guys set to return kicks, that edge may already exist. Finding a new punter to fill in for the departed Jeremy Kapinos won't be easy, with sophomore Jeremy Boone perhaps best suited for the job.

OUTLOOK: The Nittany Lions open the season with three straight home games -- two laughers (Florida Atlantic and Buffalo) and one motivated by revenge (Notre Dame). Back-to-back road bouts kick off the conference portion of the schedule, including the opener against Michigan. Home dates versus Iowa and Wisconsin will be brawls for sure, as will two more home games against Ohio State and Purdue. Win three of those and the team should be in line for another January bowl game as it closes the regular season with winnable road bouts at Temple and Michigan State. This isn't the best team Paterno has fielded during his legendary tenure, but there is enough talent in the pool to allow the Lions to challenge the Big Ten elite.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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