This Week in Auto Racing August 22 - August 26

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/22/2007 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR's traditional late summer Saturday night shootout at the Bristol Motor Speedway highlights a busy week at the race track.

NASCAR

Nextel Cup

Sharpie 500 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

It took three days, but for Kurt Busch the race at Michigan was worth the wait. The 2004 Nextel Cup champion solidified his hold on the 12th and final spot in the "Chase for the Nextel Cup."

"This was an unbelievable performance for my Pat Tryson-led Miller Lite Dodge team and they deserve the credit," said Busch. "You know, I've got to thank the fans who stuck it out on a Tuesday to see a green-white-checker. We put it on for them here at the end, all the restarts, all of the guys on different strategy, it really was a tough, hard-fought win."

Busch has built his lead from 96 points before the race to 163 points over Dale Earnhardt Jr. and 171 over his Penske Racing teammate Ryan Newman. His second win in the last three races also means that should he make the "Chase" he would start with the fourth-highest total. Only Jeff Gordon (four wins), Jimmie Johnson (four) and Tony Stewart (three) would begin the 10-race "playoffs" with more points.

And even better news for Busch is that this week's event is at the Bristol Motor Speedway, a track where the Las Vegas native has had great success. In 13 career starts at BMS, Busch has one pole, five wins and eight top-10s. Between the spring of 2002 and the spring of 2004 he won four of five races and has led a total of 560 laps.

That's not quite as many as Gordon (active leader with 2,435) or Stewart (1,085), but it's better than Greg Biffle, Bill Elliott, Kevin Harvick or Newman.

Owner Roger Penske is also impressed with how Busch has rebounded from some early career problems. Although he still has to learn to control himself sometimes (ex: At Dover in June following a crash with Stewart, Busch drove into Stewart's car on pit road, nearly hitting a member of Stewart's team drawing a 100-point penalty and a $100,000 fine) he has become more of a team leader.

"I think Kurt appreciates what we're putting behind him," said Penske. "He certainly has demonstrated in the last (few) races how good he really is. I think he's at the top of his game. We hung with him when he was down, facedown quite honestly... The team has stood behind him and certainly you can see what has turned out to be a terrific team and some great success to date."

Busch will likely have to fight with Gordon, Matt Kenseth and Harvick for another win this week and the all-important 10 playoff points that a win is worth.

Gordon, like Busch, owns five Bristol wins. He also has finished in the top-10 an amazing 18 times in 29 starts. Kenseth has earned two wins and nine top-10s in 15 career starts around the 0.533-mile oval. Harvick has one win and nine top-10s in 13 starts and an average finish of 10.1, best among the drivers currently in the "Chase."

As always when you try and shoehorn 43 cars onto the high-banked, half-mile oval at Bristol expect to see plenty of bent sheetmetal and frustrated drivers. It makes for great racing.

Busch

Food City 250 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

The Busch Series continues to trudge through the long season with Carl Edwards dominating from beginning to end. At least in the driver category.

In the owner's championship, the race is much, much closer. While Edwards leads Kevin Harvick in the driver standings by 700 points, the battle between the No.60 Roush Fenway Racing Ford and the No.29 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet is a different story.

After last week, the combination of Jeff Burton and Scott Wimmer driving the No.29 Chevy is actually ahead of Edwards' No.60. The No.29 team was more than 300 points behind the No.60 following the second race at Nashville Superspeedway in June, but has made up all the ground and now leads by 40 points.

The No.29 took the lead last week after Edwards was spun out by Reed Sorenson and wound up 28th. Meanwhile, Burton finished fourth. The strong run was Burton's ninth top-five and 12th top-10 finish in just 13 starts this season.

"Scott (Wimmer) has done a great job for us," said Burton. "It's still a long way to go but we're having a lot of fun with it. With all of the pressure on the No.60, and having such a big lead in the driver point standings, nobody expected us to be in it. We're just having fun and Richard (Childress) wants us to win the owners championship in the worst way and we want to win it in the worst way."

Obviously, with the drivers championship pretty much already decided, it will be the only race worth watching.

Craftsman

O'Reilly 200 - Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN

"Race leader Mike Skinner" is a phrase used quite often this season. The driver of the No.5 Toyota truck has led at least one lap in the last 19 races dating back to the Atlanta Motor Speedway in October 2006.

Skinner led 102 laps in the last Craftsman Truck Series race at the Nashville Superspeedway pushing him over the 1,000-miles led mark in 2007. It is the fifth time in the series the feat has been accomplished and the second time for Skinner, who did it in 1996. Skinner finished third in 1996 and is determined to finish a couple of positions higher this season.

Skinner has led the most laps in seven races this year while leading the series in points (2,521), winnings ($526,850), wins (4), poles (8), top-fives (12) and top-10s (14). He also leads Ron Hornaday Jr. by 82 points.

Wednesday's race will present a different challenge than usual at the 0.533- mile, high-banked, Bristol Motor Speedway short track. In addition to the traditional problems that BMS entails there is the added feature of a newly paved race track.

Teams tested there in July, but it will still be the first NASCAR race on the track since it was repaved.

"They did a nice job, the track looks different, but it's really the same Bristol - and that's a good thing," said Ted Musgrave's crew chief Rick Gay Jr.

In the test, Travis Kvapil was quickest at 119.626 m.p.h., while Musgrave was second fastest.

"The team did a great job working through our test plan," Kvapil said. "They hit on some things towards the end of the day that found us some more speed."

Kvapil (-236) sits third in the championship after winning the last race at Nashville.

"It was pretty awesome," said Kvapil in the post-race press conference. "It took our K&N Ford half the race to get the track position and the right adjustment in it. This is the truck we won with in Michigan and finished second in Kentucky with."

It was Kvapil's ninth consecutive top-10 and third win of the season. If Skinner and Hornaday Jr. weren't having such great seasons, Kvapil would be right in the middle of the battle, instead of just outside of it, looking in.

The good news, however, is there are still 10 races left and if Kvapil can keep up his current pace he can challenge Skinner and Hornaday Jr. for the championship.

INDYCARS

Motorola Indy 300 - Infineon Raceway - Sonoma, CA

Two races ago, Tony Kanaan was virtually a bystander in the championship race. He was 111 points behind teammate Dario Franchitti and 77 points behind Scott Dixon.

Worse, neither Franchitti nor Dixon had made a misstep all season and it looked as if the gap was too large to bridge.

The series traveled to the Michigan International Speedway and Kanaan collected his first win of the season. Better still, Dixon faltered with handling problems finishing 10th and Franchitti finished 13th after a frightening upside-down ride.

Two weeks ago Kanaan won his second consecutive race, at the Kentucky Speedway, while points leader Franchitti again struggled.

The series arrives this week at the road course in Sonoma, CA and Kanaan is just 52 points behind Franchitti and 44 out of second place. With just three races remaining on the schedules (Infineon, Belle Isle, Chicagoland) it is a three-horse race for the title.

But Kanaan will have to improve on last year when he ran 11th. Then 19-year- old Marco Andretti won the race edging Franchitti for the first win of his career. For Andretti it was all about fuel strategy and fuel conservation.

"My guys are the best in the business," said the son of Michael Andretti and grandson of Mario Andretti. "Their strategy was brilliant."

Kanaan will also have to best Dixon who has been superior over the last three years on road courses.

Dixon has won four times and collected nine top-10s in his last nine road course starts. In 2007 he has two wins (Mid-Ohio, Watkins Glen) and a second place on the streets of St. Petersburg.

It's a tall order, but if Kanaan wants to add a second crown to his trophy case, he will have to beat Dixon at his own game. So far Kanaan has finished third, fourth and fourth in three road course starts. Nice stats, but not enough.

Franchitti has finished fifth, third and second in three road course starts. Again, pretty good statistics, but given the likelihood of a Dixon win Franchitti could be looking up at the points leader by the end of the weekend.

One thing is for sure, it's a race you shouldn't miss.

CHAMP CARS

Champ Car Grand Prix of Belgium - Circuit Zolder - Zolder, Belgium

The Champ Car Series heads off on the European and Asian portion of the schedule, not returning to North America until mid-November. The series will begin with races in Belgium this weekend and Holland next Sunday. Then its off to Surfer's Paradise and China before finishing the season with an event in Mexico City and one in Phoenix.

Three-time series champion Sebastien Bourdais will bring a 37-point lead to the track at Zolder, Belgium - his largest of the season after a win at Road America. It was his second win in the last three events and coupled with a bad race by Robert Doornbos has allowed him to put some distance between himself and his primary rival for the championship.

The 2.622-mile road course will host a Champ Car event for the first time.

"Obviously it would be awesome to go back to Europe with the McDonald's team and get another couple of wins, but those tracks are a big unknown for us," said Bourdais. "I have never been to Zolder or Assen."

That hasn't seemed to bother the Frenchman in the past. Over the last four years, Champ Cars has used seven new venues and Bourdais won five times.

Doornbos has gone in the opposite direction at just the wrong time. After posting five consecutive top-10s, including a win at Mont-Tremblant, the Rotterdam, Netherlands native has finished outside the top-10 in two of the last three events. But he is excited to be headed back home.

"For Champ Car, it's their first time at Zolder, but not for me - I raced there seven years ago, in 2000," said Doornbos. "It's just great to drive in front of your home crowd, and for sure it gives you an extra boost that you need."

FORMULA ONE

Turkish Grand Prix - Istanbul Autodrom - Istanbul, Turkey

After a wild weekend in Hungary, where McLaren finished first and fourth but gained no manufacturer points because of a qualifying penalty, the series resumes this Sunday with a race in Istanbul, Turkey.

Despite the 15-point penalty, McLaren still has control of both the drivers and manufacturers championship. Behind super rookie Lewis Hamilton and two- time defending World Champion Fernando Alonso the team holds a 19-point edge for the manufacturers trophy. They also have a stranglehold on the drivers championship.

Hamilton, who has only once finished worse than third one time in 11 Formula One starts, owns a seven-point lead in the standings over teammate Alonso. His lead is 20 points over rival Ferrari's No.1 driver Kimi Raikkonen and 21 points over Felipe Massa, also of Ferrari.

Istanbul is a popular circuit for the drivers. It's fast with long straights. It has several different corner combinations including elevation changes and, of course, it has Turn Eight.

"It is probably the most difficult corner in the whole championship," said Renault's Giancarlo Fisichella.

Turn Eight is a long left-hander taken at about 150 m.p.h. which puts a lot of pressure on both driver and machine, particularly late in the race.

"The track is great to drive, with some sections that are really on the limit and what you want to race on as a driver, Turn Eight in particular,"said Alonso.

"It is a very physically demanding circuit, all the fast corners, such as Turn Eight which is awesome and flat out, and the heat place a big demand on the drivers," said Hamilton, who raced there in 2006 in the GP2 Series.

With six races left in the F1 season, McLaren's lead is not big enough that the team can relax.

In 2006, Massa won the Turkish Grand Prix finishing more than five seconds ahead of Alonso for his first Formula One victory.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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