This Week in Golf - February 11th through February 14th

Golf Betting Lines

02/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - PGA TOUR - AT&T PEBBLE BEACH NATIONAL PRO- AM, Pebble Beach Golf Links, Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course, Spyglass Hill Golf Course, Pebble Beach, California - It's one of most popular events on the schedule at one of the most storied places.

Pebble Beach, with all of the celebrities and amateurs, hosts this week's PGA Tour stop. That venue will play host to the final round after three days on three courses. The Monetery Course was added back into the mix for 2010, replacing Poppy Hills Golf Course.

Bill Murray headlines the celebrity group as always. From there, it's a host of quarterbacks and television personalities with insanely long rounds mixed in.

Last year, Dustin Johnson, who was a factor at Riviera last week, was declared the winner some 40 hours after he hit his last shot. Due to rain and wind that was strong enough to topple a 40-foot tree, play was called on Sunday. When they went out for the Monday finish, streams replaced fairways and ponds formed on greens.

For Johnson, it was his second PGA Tour victory and he became the youngest player to win the title.

This could be considered the test run for a bigger event at Pebble Beach later in 2010. The U.S. Open returns to the storied course in June with Lucas Glover the defending champion.

Maybe it'll be there when Tiger Woods comes back. In 2000, when Pebble Beach last hosted the U.S. Open, Woods won by about 45 strokes in what some consider his most impressive victory.

The Golf Channel has the action on Thursday and Friday and CBS takes over on Saturday and Sunday.

Next week there will be two events on the PGA Tour.

First is the WGC-Accenture Match Play Championship, won last year by Geoff Ogilvy. Some thought this would be where Tiger returned, but his caddy Stevie shot that down.

For those not lucky enough to be in the top 64 (technically 66 because of the absence of both Woods and Phil Mickelson), there's the Mayakoba Golf Classic, which was won last year by Mark Wilson.

EUROPEAN TOUR

AVANTHA MASTERS, DLF Golf and Country Club, New Delhi, India - European Tour golf heads to the second-most populated country.

Tri-sanctioned between the European Tour, Asian Tour and Professional Golf Tour of India, the Avantha Masters boasts a decent field. Darren Clarke and David Howell are on hand and the field is filled with Indian players.

Jeev Milkha Singh, Jyoti Randhawa and Shiv Kapur are the outstanding Indian players in the field.

The Golf Channel has the tape-delayed action.

DLF Golf and Country Club hosted the 2008 Johnnie Walker Classic, which was won by Mark Brown of New Zealand.

CHAMPIONS TOUR

THE ACE GROUP CLASSIC - The Quarry, Naples, Florida - After a long absence and two events in Hawaii, the Champions Tour returns and is in the continental United States.

Tom Watson and Jack Nicklaus teamed to win the Champions Skins Game and Watson trumped Champions Tour rookie Fred Couples to win the Mitsubishi Electric Championship.

Last year, Loren Roberts made a three-foot birdie putt on the 18th hole Sunday to beat Gene Jones by a stroke.

Couples is in the field this week, but the bigger name for a week anyway is Paul Azinger. The former U.S. Ryder Cup captain is debuting on the Champions Tour this week.

The Golf Channel will air all of the action.

Next week is the Allianz Championship, which Mike Goodes won in 2009.

Wwnytimes Golf Betting News

<< Pacers' Foster to have season-ending back surgery
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Indiana Pacers forward/center Jeff Foster will undergo season-ending surgery for lower back pain following the All-Star break. Foster is expected to make a full recovery and participate in training camp

<< Clippers' Kaman to replace injured Roy in All-Star Game
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Clippers center Chris Kaman was named the replacement for injured Portland Trail Blazers guard Brandon Roy Monday for the NBA All-Star Game to be held February 14 in Dallas. Kaman, a sevent

<< Vesnina, Szavay advance in France
Paris, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eighth-seeded Elena Vesnina and Hungarian Agnes Szavay were Monday's first-round winners at the $700,000 Open GDF Suez tennis tournament. The Russian Vesnina vaulted past Romanian Alexandra Dulgheru 6

<< Stricker up to second in world rankings
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Steve Stricker's victory on Sunday at the Northern Trust Open moved the American to second in this week's world rankings. Tiger Woods remained in first, followed by Stricker, who was third last

<< Gainey stepping down as Canadiens GM
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Montreal Canadiens general manager Bob Gainey will reportedly step down from his post, as the team has scheduled a press conference for 4 p.m. (et). According to a report by TSN Canada, assistant general

Brewers to honor Selig with statue >>
Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Brewers announced Monday that they will honor former owner and current baseball commissioner Bud Selig with a statue at Miller Park. It will be the third statue built at Miller Park, joining

Gainey steps down as Canadiens GM, Gauthier takes over >>
Montreal, QC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Montreal Canadiens general manager Bob Gainey has decided to step down from his post and hand the reins over to Pierre Gauthier, the club announced on Monday. "After a long and difficult period of

Yankees add Thames to outfield mix >>
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The New York Yankees have reportedly added Marcus Thames with a one-year contract worth $900,000 if he makes the team. SI.com and the New York Post reported the signing. Thames is expected to compete

Rachel Alexandra staying loose in Big Easy >>
New Orleans, LA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Less than 12 hours after the New Orleans Saints captured Super Bowl XLIV, the other champion residing in the Big Easy took to the track for a jog. Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra took a jog aroun

Blue Bombers sign RB Marc >>
Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers announced Monday that they have agreed to terms with running back Emmanuel Marc. Marc participated in Winnipeg's training camp in 2009 and graduated from Delaware State in

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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