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07/22/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Minnesota Twins have had their problems when playing on the road in recent weeks, but a visit to Baltimore's Camden Yards could help solve those struggles.
Minnesota starts up a week-long trek with tonight's opener of a four-game series with the hapless Orioles, owners of the worst home record in baseball this season.
The Twins have lost nine of their last 12 road tests and are just 20-25 away from home this year, one reason why the defending American League Central champions trail the Chicago White Sox by 2 1/2 games for first place in the division. Minnesota has found considerably more success at the brand-new Target Field, having amassed a 30-20 mark thus far in the team's first-year home.
Minnesota began its post-All Star break schedule with a seven-game homestand that featured three wins in four matchups with the rival White Sox this past weekend. The Twins then proceeded to drop a pair of contests to the last-place Cleveland Indians before averting a potential sweep with a 6-0 triumph in yesterday's series finale.
Francisco Liriano fired seven shutout innings to lead the way on Wednesday, while Delmon Young kept up his torrid hitting by collecting three hits and three RBI to pace Minnesota offensively. J.J. Hardy added a two-run double for the Twins, who scored four times in the third inning to give Liriano all the support he would need.
Liriano (8-7) scattered six hits and four walks while striking out eight batters in winning his second straight start following the break. The left- hander had gone 0-4 with a 6.75 earned run average in his final five outings of the first half.
Young, meanwhile, has hit .400 (12-for-28) with nine RBI in Minnesota's seven tilts since the All-Star Game, which has raised the former No. 1 overall pick's season average to .313.
Carl Pavano, who'll take the ball for the Twins in tonight's opener of this set, is on quite a roll of his own at the moment. The oft-injured righty enters this evening's clash having won six consecutive decisions and is unbeaten over an eight-start span dating back to June 9. Minnesota has prevailed in all but one of those games.
Pavano came up big once again this past Saturday, limiting Chicago to seven hits and striking out six without a walk in a complete-game effort that lifted the Twins to an important 3-2 victory. It was the third time the 34-year-old has gone the distance during his undefeated run, in which he's posted a strong 2.74 ERA and walked just seven batters in a combined 62 1/3 innings.
The 11-game winner was dealt a loss by the Orioles earlier this season, but still pitched well in that May 6 encounter in Minneapolis. Pavano worked eight innings and allowed just two runs while garnering eight strikeouts, but came out on the wrong end of a 2-0 decision.
Pavano is 4-3 with a 3.28 ERA over eight lifetime starts against Baltimore, and 5-3 with a 3.46 ERA in nine appearances on the road this season.
He'll be opposed tonight by Kevin Millwood, with the Orioles veteran set to return from a brief stint on the disabled list due to a strained right forearm. The right-hander was shelved for a couple of weeks after lasting only one inning in a rough showing against Detroit on July 5, with Millwood surrendering five runs on four hits and walking two batters before exiting.
The offseason acquisition, a 13-game winner for Texas last year, has endured a rough first season in Baltimore. Millwood has registered a subpar 5.77 ERA and allowed a .307 opposing average in his 18 starts, and had lost his first eight decisions prior to coming through with back-to-back wins over San Diego and Florida on June 19 and 24.
Millwood will be trying to beat Minnesota for the first time in his 14-year career, as he's 0-8 with a 5.71 in 13 lifetime starts against tonight's foe. The 35-year-old did have a solid performance against the Twins on May 8, but was stuck with a tough-luck defeat after permitting three runs through seven innings.
The Orioles, whose 30-64 overall record is the worst in the majors, picked up right where they left off before the break on this current homestand.
Baltimore has lost five of the first six tilts on the 10-game residency and comes in off a 5-4 setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday.
Ty Wigginton slugged a two-run homer and Luke Scott went 2-for-4 with an RBI for Baltimore, but the O's failed to score over the final four innings after Tampa Bay took a 5-4 lead on a bases-loaded walk in the top of the sixth.
The Rays loaded the bases against Baltimore starter Brad Bergesen with one out in the sixth on a single and a pair of walks, but the Orioles nearly escaped the jam when new pitcher Jason Berken got Jason Bartlett to hit into a force play at home. Berken would then issue a free pass to Evan Longoria, though, to bring in the go-ahead run.
"I was just trying to throw my fastball down and away," Berken said. "I left it up and in. It wasn't the location I wanted."
Bergesen (3-8) received the loss after being charged with all five runs on nine hits in his 5 1/3-inning stint.
The Orioles fell to a woeful 17-30 at home with Wednesday's defeat, but have beaten the Twins in the last three meetings between the teams held at Camden Yards.
Minnesota played Wednesday's game without the services of manager Ron Gardenhire due to an undisclosed family matter, with third base coach Scott Ullger running the team in his absence. It's unclear whether Gardenhire will be available to return to his duties tonight.
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Oddsmakers have released the odds for the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award and Seattle Seahawks linebacker Aaron Curry has been made the opening favorite.
Seattle took Curry with the fourth overall pick in April's NFL draft and plan on inserting him into its starting lineup right away. The Hawks traded linebacker Julian Peterson in the offseason, so Curry is expected to have a significant role in Seattle's defense next year and that's one of the primary reasons he is the favorite to win the NFL ROY Award.
Oddsmakers from online sportsbook MySportsbook.com have made Curry a 5/1 favorite to win this year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. Given that he was the best defensive prospect in this year's draft and how he'll have plenty of opportunities to make plays in '09, Curry offers a ton of value at 5/1.
Another thing working for Curry is the position he plays. A linebacker has won the defensive ROY award six straight times and eight of the last nine years. Jerod Mayo, Patrick Willis, DeMeco Ryans, Shawne Merriman, Jonathan Vilma, Terrell Suggs, Kendrell Bell and Brian Urlacher were the most recent linebackers to take home the award.
Following Curry at 5/1 are Tyson Jackson (Chiefs) at 7/1, James Laurinaitas (Rams) at 8/1, Brian Orakpo (Redskins) at 10/1, Rey Maualuga (Bengals) at 10/1 and Jerry Peria (Falcons) at 10/1.
All the players mentioned above are expected to start for their respective teams, but Jackson and Peria are going to have a tough time being recognized on a national level given they're both defensive linemen. D-linemen rarely put up the numbers that it takes to win an individual award like the ROY.
A couple of players with some value are Clay Matthews (Packers) at 12/1 and Larry English (Chargers) at 15/1. Matthews is expected to start at outside linebacker in Green Bay's new 3-4 defense and could rack up a ton of tackles. English, who was an impressive player at Northern Illinois, is expected to be a situational pass rusher for the Chargers and could rack up a ton of sacks.
For complete odds on the 2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award, see below. And for complete odds for the 2009 AP NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Award, click the link provided.
2009 AP NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Award
Robert Ayers (DEN) 12/1
Ron Brace (NE) 25/1
Everette Brown (CAR) 16/1
Darius Butler (NE) 40/1
Patrick Chung (NE) 30/1
Aaron Curry (SEA) 5/1
Brian Cushing (HOU) 12/1
Vontae Davis (MIA) 30/1
Louis Delmas (DET) 30/1
Larry English (SD) 15/1
Evander Hood (PIT) 25/1
Tyson Jackson (KC) 7/1
Malcolm Jenkins (NO) 25/1
Paul Kruger (BAL) 50/1
James Laurinaitas (STL) 8/1
Sen'Derrick Marks (TEN) 20/1
Clay Matthews (GB) 12/1
Aaron Maybin (BUF) 15/1
Rey Maualuga (CIN) 10/1
Roy Miller (TB) 20/1
Michael Mitchell (OAK) 45/1
Fili Moala (IND) 30/1
Brian Orakpo (WAS) 10/1
Jerry Peria (ATL) 10/1
B J Raji (GB) 7/1
Clint Sintim (NYG) 35/1
Alphonso Smith (DEN) 40/1
David Verkune (CLE) 20/1
Jason Williams (DAL) 30/1
Field (Any Other Player) 6/1
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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