Shields and Verlander square off at the Trop

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After being on the receiving end of several no-hitters over the past year, the Tampa Bay Rays finally got one of their own last night.

Fresh off Matt Garza's pitching gem, the Rays will attempt to pin an eighth consecutive road loss on the slumping Detroit Tigers when these two teams continue a four-game series from Tropicana Field this evening.

Tampa Bay kicked off its current 11-game homestand in memorable fashion on Monday, when Garza became the first pitcher in franchise history to throw a no-hitter in a 5-0 triumph over the Tigers. The standout right-hander faced the minimum 27 batters, with a second-inning walk to Brennan Boesch accounting for Detroit's lone baserunner on the night.

"I don't care who it came from, we needed one," said Garza, who struck out six and tied a career high with his 11th win. "We've been on way too many of those in the last year. We've seen three of those and we've seen some almost happen. We needed one just for our own confidence."

Tampa Bay was the victim of a no-hitter twice earlier this season, including a perfect game by Oakland's Dallas Braden on May 9. Former Ray Edwin Jackson also held his old team hitless while with Arizona on June 25, and Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle's unforgettable perfect game came against Tampa on July 23, 2009.

The Rays seemed to be on their way to another hitless night on Monday, as Detroit starter Max Scherzer didn't allow one over the first 5 2/3 innings of the contest. That streak came to an end when Matt Joyce belted a grand slam on a full-count pitch to snap a scoreless deadlock in the bottom of the sixth.

Tampa Bay had loaded the bases on a pair of walks and an interference call on Tigers catcher Gerald Laird.

"I honestly had the approach where I was going to hit a hard ground ball up the middle," said Joyce. "You know, 3-2, it was a fastball and I put good wood on it."

Scherzer (7-8) left after giving up a single to Jason Bartlett following Joyce's slam and was reached for four runs (three earned) while striking out eight over his 5 2/3-inning stint.

Carl Crawford added a solo homer later on for Tampa Bay, which has now won three in a row and remained three games behind the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East. The Rays lead the Wild Card standings by five games over Boston.

Detroit, on the other hand, has now dropped 10 of their last 13 and fallen three games back of Chicago for the top spot in the AL Central. The Tigers have also lost eight straight on the road and are a woeful 16-30 as the visitor this year.

The Tigers will turn to ace Justin Verlander tonight in hopes of getting back on track. The All-Star hurler has been one of the few recent bright spots for the sputtering club as of late, as he's won four straight and seven of his last eight decisions to improve to 12-5 over 20 overall starts in 2010. The 2006 AL Rookie of the Year honoree has also been able to pitch deep in games, having worked into the seventh inning in 10 of his last 13 trips to the hill.

The hard-throwing righty kept up his strong recent form by limiting Toronto to two runs over eight innings to lead Detroit to a 5-2 triumph last Thursday at Comerica Park. He's also one of the few Tiger pitchers to have some success on the road, bringing a 5-3 record with a 4.99 earned run average in 10 away starts into tonight's clash.

The Rays are well aware of Verlander's abilities, considering the 27-year-old boasts a 4-0 record with a 3.55 ERA in six career meetings with Tampa Bay. He's prevailed in both of his two previous starts at Tropicana Field and allowed only four runs in a combined 13 innings over those games.

Verlander has also thrown a no-hitter once in his career, having accomplished the feat against Milwaukee on June 12, 2007. He may have to be in top form again tonight, considering how a Detroit offense that's missing three key regulars in Magglio Ordonez (fractured right ankle), Brandon Inge (broken hand) and Carlos Guillen (calf strain) has fared of late.

Detroit did sweep a three-game set from the Rays at Tropicana Field last September and won six of eight overall meetings between the clubs in 2009.

Verlander's counterpart this evening, James Shields, has also performed quite well when called upon in this series. The Tampa righty sports a 3-0 mark with a 3.93 ERA in six lifetime starts against Detroit.

Unlike Verlander, Shields hasn't been on top of his game as of late. The durable 28-year-old has permitted four or more runs in five of his last six outings and has posted a substandard 7.25 ERA in a 10-start stretch dating back to May 30. He's lost eight of his last 11 decisions as well and had problems pitching at home, where the California native carries an unwanted 1-5 record and 5.59 ERA in nine 2010 starts.

Shields was able to notch a win by battling through 6 1/3 innings at Baltimore this past Wednesday, surrendering four runs on eight hits in the Rays' 5-4 decision.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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